War in the Middle East, inflation, rising fuel prices, the spread of a deadly virus, and geopolitical tensions. One recent headline may be enough to make summer travelers nervous. But so far, travel advisors and industry insiders say this summer travel season is looking surprisingly, well, normal, although some are adjusting their plans.
Of course, the situation could change quickly, especially if Iran’s fragile ceasefire collapses or if the Ebola or hantavirus outbreaks spread.
But as the long Memorial Day weekend marks the unofficial start of summer, AAA predicts a record 45 million Americans will travel more than 80 miles from home, despite near-record gas prices. Domestic travel forecasts are up slightly from last year, with 39.1 million people expected to travel by car (39 million in 2025) and 3.66 million people expected to travel by air (3.65 million in 2025).
And although airfares have increased by nearly 25% since the start of the Iran war, AAA reports that most flyers purchased summer flights before the conflict began and oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were cut off.
On the international travel front, travel agents and travel companies said they are not seeing travelers cancel their plans, although some people are calling with questions and concerns about safety. However, some places are making adjustments.
“Tour bookings in Europe are softening, while North America is rebounding,” said Steve Bourne, chief marketing officer of the Globus family of domestic and international land tours through the Globus and Cosmos brands, as well as European and Asian river cruises with Avalon Waterways. “Well, some travelers are making different choices about where to go. But they still go.”
Data from aviation analytics firm Cirium shows summer bookings from the U.S. to Europe are down 6.5% from the same period a year ago, but a company spokesperson said this is an improvement from the double-digit declines Cirium reported early in the Iran war. Travelers can expect planes to be as crowded as ever as airlines are consolidating flights in response to rising fuel costs.
luxury travel trends
One area that doesn’t seem to be affected so far is luxury travel.
“Luxury travel is less volatile and tends to behave differently based on price and geopolitical conditions,” said Misty Ewing Bells, vice president of global communications at Virtuoso, a consortium of luxury travel companies. “Looking at summer travel from June to August, Virtuoso bookings were up 22 percent year-over-year and sales were up 34 percent.”
Beth Scherer, vice president of global product strategy at Abercrombie & Kent, agreed: Luxury travel “continues to be very resilient.”
“In Europe, there is a shift in interest to deeper travel, including experiences that go beyond the traditional highlights,” Scherer said. “Scotland and the United Kingdom are particularly popular, including travel related to iconic events such as military tattoos. And in Asia, Japan continues to be one of the world’s most popular destinations, while South Korea is seeing a rise in interest in its fusion of history, cuisine and pop culture.”
Ewing-Bells said that so far, senior advisers have not reported any cancellations due to the Ebola outbreak in East Africa or the outbreak of hantavirus on an expedition ship to South America. In fact, Scheller said African safaris remain popular and demand in Egypt is strong.
Travel agencies specializing in cruises say they are not seeing any effects from hantavirus.
“It’s business as usual for now,” said Susie Schreiner, owner of custom agency Azure Blue Vacations. “I mainly book in Europe and my clients are traveling as planned. There are no cancellations or hesitations.”
Summer looks as busy as ever, but that may be largely because most trips were booked before airfares started to skyrocket due to high oil prices.
last minute summer travel ideas
So where can last-minute travelers go without breaking the bank?
“There’s still space in Alaska,” said Craig Pables, founder and CEO of Pables Travel. “We have a lot of capacity, and the prices are very reasonable. Also, the airfare is not too bad and the travel time from most cities in the country is not that bad.”
Camille Cutrone, president and co-owner of Vista Travel Consultants, said European cruise travel is a good deal because many airlines pre-purchase a large number of tickets and can offer free or heavily discounted airfare.
“AmaWaterways just launched a $599 air promotion to help sell (river) cruises,” Cutrone said.
For those concerned about political tensions, Cutrone says she always recommends safe destinations, such as Lake Como or Austria.
Unless something drastic changes in the coming months, the summer travel conversation may end with a decline in inbound travelers to the United States. Bookings from Europe continue to decline, with a 6.8% drop this summer compared to last year, and a 16% drop this year overall compared to 2025.
“I think the biggest thing that’s going to happen over the summer is that the World Cup ends up not being held[in the U.S.],” said Chris Lopinto, CEO of award travel search engine Seat Aero.
Lopinto added: “Everyone was expecting a tourism boom, but hoteliers are reporting that they’re not as booked as they expected. There are a lot of cancellations. People don’t want to come here for a variety of reasons: it’s too expensive, they can’t get tourist visas in time, etc. So it’s a perfect storm that is preventing what is essentially free travel.”
One silver lining is that last-minute World Cup travel opportunities may open up.