The European Union’s 27 leaders are gearing up for a high-voltage summit in Brussels, packed with topics on Ukraine, climate goals and China, all of which could lead to tough negotiations and delicate compromises.
Thursday’s daylong meeting will also include defense posture, competitiveness, the Middle East, irregular migration and, for the first time, the housing crisis.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy plans to attend the rally in person to appeal for political support for his strategy and new support for the military, which is dangerously short after US President Donald Trump cut off all funding.
President Trump’s expected diplomacy will weigh heavily on the talks. head and head Meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest Postponed indefinitelyurges Europeans to Ranking close to Kyivand reaffirm their position.
On Tuesday, a group of European leaders called for a ceasefire on “current” fronts, which President Trump said he supported but which Putin rejected outright.
“We remain committed to the principle that borders must not be changed by force,” they said in a statement.
As is the current tradition, the joint conclusions on Ukraine will only be approved by the 26 member states as a result of the highly publicized Hungarian disagreement. However, Hungary is not expected to take center stage on Thursday, with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán expected to arrive in the late afternoon due to the public holiday.
Instead, the main focus will be on Belgium.
Heads of state and government will try to use Russia’s inactive assets to allay Belgium’s concerns about its bold plan to issue a national security treaty. 140 billion euros of interest-free loans He called on Ukraine to close its budget deficit and provide reliable military support.
Belgium is particularly involved in this landmark project, as the majority of Russian assets are held at Euroclear, a central securities depository based in Brussels.
The country’s Prime Minister, Mr. Bart de Weber,asked This is to ensure “the maximum amount” of legal certainty, solidarity and accountability, so that potential risks such as Moscow’s retaliation can be appropriately shared among all member states. Mr de Wever also called for “transparency” to identify the location of Russian sovereign assets held in other jurisdictions.
“I don’t think this is an unreasonable position,” he said earlier this month.
Diplomats and officials acknowledge that Belgium has a legitimate interest and hope that Mr. de Wever will eventually agree to order the European Commission to draw up legal proposals so that Kiev can start receiving funds within the next year.
The talks will consider how to ensure that Ukraine’s military purchases based on loans benefit European industry, a key goal for France. In contrast, some companies prefer to prioritize immediacy of production and supply, regardless of country of origin.
“The purpose of this loan is to keep Ukraine in the fight,” a senior diplomat said. “It would be even better if we could use that loan in Europe.”
fight against climate change
Alongside De Wever, leaders will also keep an eye on Slovakia’s Prime Minister Roberto Fico, who vetoed a new sanctions package against Russia.
Fico has no objections to the package itself, which targets Russia’s liquefied natural gas (LNG), oil infrastructure, “shadow fleet” and crypto platforms. Movements of Russian diplomats But it raises a series of unrelated questions about energy prices, the auto manufacturing sector and competitiveness.
Ahead of Thursday’s summit, ambassadors I spent hours fine-tuning it. Conclusions to expand the language on those very issues.
In a letter to 27 people, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pledged to lower energy prices for households and accelerate a review of the law that effectively bans the sale of new cars with internal combustion engines by 2035.
The overture appears to have worked, with Fico telegraphing on Wednesday his intention to override his veto and agree to sanctions. He appeared to claim victory, saying the package “doesn’t directly concern us, but it’s a good negotiating tool.”
Fico’s lobbying push is woven into a broader debate about climate change policy, which conservative leaders such as Germany’s Friedrich Merz, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Poland’s Donald Tusk are increasingly challenging.
Even liberals like France’s Emmanuel Macron are questioning it. President Macron had called on leaders to meet face-to-face to discuss the need to set emissions reduction targets for 2040 by mid-century that would provide a bridge to climate neutrality.
The European Commission has already proposed a 90% cut by 2040, but would give governments and industry some flexibility. Approval of the document faces difficulties amid a deepening political backlash against environmental regulations.
Another point of friction is the new Emissions trading system (ETS) sets a price on CO2 emitted by buildings and road traffic. Some countries want a comprehensive review of the system, which is due to come into force in 2027, or a complete scrapping.
Amid growing discontent, Thursday’s deal risks descending into a bitter showdown over the Green Deal, a key legacy of Ms von der Leyen’s first mandate.
“If a strong, resilient, sustainable and innovative economy is our goal, dogmatically clinging to existing business models, no matter their past successes, is not the answer,” von der Leyen wrote in the letter.
Although not officially on the agenda, China will inevitably be on the agenda as well.
The Chinese government’s decision to reimpose and extend wide-ranging restrictions on rare earths, which are vital to the defense and technology sectors, has upset European countries and their citizens. provoked call Germany, France and Poland called for a tougher stance.
But member states remain sharply divided over how to deal with China, worried that escalation with the Asian giant could deal a major blow to Europe’s economy, which is still reeling from the painful effects of President Trump’s tariffs.
This means the prospect of invoking the bloc’s most powerful trade tool, anti-coercive measures, remains a remote idea for now.