Las Vegas misses visitors from Canada. A city in Florida is feeling the chill of tourists from the north. Travelers from Germany, France, and Spain are traveling internationally, not just in the United States. It’s different than before.
Now, Chinese tourists may be reconsidering their U.S. travel plans following a warning from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs after U.S. Customs and Border Protection denied entry to a group of Chinese scholars at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport. This was despite the fact that all of them had valid U.S. visas.
What the data shows
The shift away from the United States for international travel is showing up in booking data. According to a report by aviation analysis firm Cirium, advance bookings from Europe to the United States for July 2026, which coincides with the World Cup, fell 15.3% from the previous year.
In fact, while U.S. tourism from many markets is declining, the number of tourists visiting the U.S. from other countries such as the United Kingdom, Brazil and Argentina is increasing slightly, said Eric Hansen, senior vice president of government relations at the U.S. Travel Association. “There is a gap between perception and reality,” Hansen told Afar, pointing to Canada as the biggest culprit for the decline in international visitors.
In 2025, the number of visitors from Canada to the United States will decrease by 22%. Excluding Canada, the number of international visitors to the U.S. increased slightly, by about 1%, Hansen said.
For now, the United States remains the world’s largest travel and tourism market, a spokesperson for the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) acknowledged. But Hansen acknowledged that growth is slowing. While global travel demand increased overall in 2025, interest in the United States lagged behind.
Awareness, policy, and safety concerns
A recent WTTC press release pointed to the US proposal to introduce social media checks for incoming travelers as “a major reason why some people are hesitant to travel to the US”. A WTTC study released in January suggested that visitor spending could be cut by $15.7 billion, with about 157,000 U.S. jobs subsequently lost. WTTC revealed that one-third of international travelers would reconsider their plans to visit Japan if social media policies were enacted.
Seth Borko, head of research at Skift, a media outlet that covers the business side of global travel, highlighted the 2025 Skift Consumer Habits Survey, which surveyed travelers from Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Mexico, and India. We asked participants who said they were unlikely to visit the United States what was driving their emotions. 32% said tariffs and trade policy would push the United States away. 63% cited the political situation in the United States. and 38% cited safety and security concerns.
Advocacy groups echo these concerns. This week, more than 120 U.S.-based civil rights organizations, including the American Civil Liberties Union and the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, as well as fan groups affiliated with Major League Soccer and the National Women’s Soccer League, issued a travel advisory for potential visitors to the United States ahead of this summer’s World Cup.
Their statement warns that LGBTQ+ individuals and travelers, who are a marginalized racial and ethnic group in the United States, may be “most vulnerable to serious harm” due to current government policies. Signatories include organizations from each of the 11 World Cup host cities. Among the evidence cited: 48 deaths in U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement custody since early 2025, full or partial entry restrictions on travelers from 39 countries, and the recent presence of ICE agents at airports across the United States.
Beyond politics, cost has always been an important factor for travelers considering a trip to the U.S., especially now with the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and rising airfares and baggage fees, Hansen said. Concerns over visa access and immigration procedures are also shaping decision-making, even though visa wait times have been significantly reduced in many major markets and proposed changes to ESTA visa applications are unlikely to come into effect before the World Cup matches.
Headlines about tourists being detained or interrogated at borders can quickly impact perceptions, even if they are unusual. What all this means for the next FIFA World Cup, co-hosted by the United States, Canada and Mexico, remains to be seen.
Hansen said it was too early to draw firm conclusions about World Cup attendance numbers, saying “the data is not clear yet.” Canada is scheduled to host an early round of the tournament, and Hansen predicts Canadians may end up crossing the border if their team advances.