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Meteorologists say the so-called polar vortex will be weaker than usual this winter. Experts say this will likely mean a cold winter for Germany due to the Arctic cold.
The last time a meridional weather pattern brought Germany the winter of the century was in 1978/79. At that time, people were experiencing heavy snowfall, blizzards, and unusually low temperatures.
White Christmas or baby Jesus in the mud?
Current weather models paint a generally calm picture for the days around Christmas, although there are isolated cold outliers. This is also confirmed by wetter.de’s 42-day trend.
Long-term models from the European Meteorological Center also show cooling, but only after the holidays. Only the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has significantly higher average monthly temperatures. However, this average is strongly influenced by the next two weeks, so this is consistent with the possibility of subsequent cooling.
That means the situation remains unresolved.
January: Freezing cold or early spring?
Experts mainly point out that January tends to be more variable and milder, with less winter and more gray.
This puts the NOAA model on the same trajectory, although its calculations have fluctuated significantly recently. The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) model is interesting, showing that January may be slightly cooler and drier than the long-term average.
These weather conditions are considered to indicate that high pressure is stable over central Europe. And high pressure in January can be deceptive. Everything looks friendly during the day, but fog and cooling quickly lead to permafrost and frost.
Then there’s the polar vortex factor. Particularly in the middle of winter, cold arctic air tends to create disturbances that can head towards Europe. Although current models do not indicate an imminent collapse of the polar vortex, the anticyclone trend is essentially consistent with such an evolution.
girl and boy
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center has also confirmed the presence of La Niña this year, which is expected to last from December 2025 to February 2026. In general, La Niña causes temperatures in Western Europe to be lower than normal.
La Niña is part of the natural climate cycle, but like El Niño, it can cause extreme weather events around the world. It occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean fall below average. This is the exact opposite of the warm El Niño phenomenon.
Both La Niña and El Niño can have widespread effects on weather patterns around the world, including Europe, but the farther a location is from the Pacific Ocean, the stronger their effects can be.
In general, La Niña brings wetter and colder conditions to the Alps, which can lead to more frequent and heavier snowfall. So for skiers, the prospect of the winter of the century may be welcome news.