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Aviva‘s (LSE:AV.) share worth has risen sharply over the previous 12 months. Traders acquired a formidable whole return of 32.3%, together with dividend progress. However what does that imply from a chilly laborious money perspective?
Since February 5, 2025, Aviva shares have elevated in worth by 26.6%, with a remaining dividend yield of 5.7% over this era. Which means your then £10,000 funding is now price £13,320.
As compared, the broader the vary, FTSE100 It could have delivered a decrease (however nonetheless stable) return of £12,370. The query is, can the celebration at Aviva proceed?
What do the consultants assume?
Metropolis analysts imagine Aviva’s share worth can proceed to rise. Eighteen of those firms at the moment fee the FTSE inventory, with a median 12-month worth goal of 697.2p, representing a 7.9% upside from right this moment’s ranges.
That is far under the expansion buyers loved final 12 months. And that appears to have one thing to do with the present valuation of the insurance coverage firm. At 646.4p, the ahead worth/earnings ratio (P/E) is 11.1x, which isn’t excessive on paper however remains to be above the 10-year common of seven.2x.
Based mostly on these forecasts, Aviva inventory might ship spectacular returns over the following 12 months. The corporate’s future dividend is 6.4%, which means that if all goes nicely, your £10,000 funding right this moment shall be price £11,430 by February 2026.
What might go mistaken?
Aviva faces a collection of challenges which can be more likely to impression investor returns within the 12 months forward. For instance, the corporate’s inventory worth might disappoint if shopper spending within the UK, its fundamental market, continues to return underneath strain, hurting income. If insurance coverage claims proceed to rise, it might have a very adverse impression on the efficiency of the non-life insurance coverage division.
However, I imagine Aviva is a superb inventory to think about. Metropolis analysts are additionally usually constructive about FTSE, with 10 score the corporate a “sturdy purchase” or “purchase.” 7 assume it is a Maintain, whereas only one say it is a Sturdy Promote or Promote.
Will Aviva’s inventory worth go up?
Aviva is without doubt one of the core shares in my very own portfolio, so I’ve shared in its spectacular positive aspects over the previous 12 months. However I purchased it as a result of I wished to make use of it for a very long time. With the corporate’s sturdy model, various product vary and robust stability sheet, we imagine it’s well-positioned to benefit from the quickly rising monetary companies market.
I notably like the corporate’s give attention to capital gentle enterprise. This may generate spectacular money that can be utilized to pay dividends to shareholders, put money into the enterprise, or pursue bolt-on acquisitions for progress.
A staggering 70% of its working revenue will in the end come from its capital gentle enterprise, following final 12 months’s acquisition of rival Direct Line. That is up from 56% in 2025.
So what can we count on within the subsequent 12 months? Dangers stay, however the firm’s resilient efficiency in 2025 makes me really feel optimistic. On the finish of the day, I count on Aviva’s share worth and dividend to rise even additional.