Polling stations opened at 9 a.m. this Sunday at 791 authorized centers. This is the first time in the history of Extremadura that local elections have been separated from other communities and held early, in December, on the eve of Christmas.
It all started on October 27, when Junta president Maria Guardiola announced the dissolution of parliament after the 2026 budget was blocked. Vox and PSOE submitted a joint amendment to overturn the regional account, leading to the earliest call for elections in Extremadura’s democracy.
This campaign attracted unusual attention nationwide. Leaders of the major political parties visited the region more than usual, aware that the results would be the first in a series of elections, including Aragon in February, Castilla y León in March, and possibly Andalusia in June. There has also been controversy over the disappearance of some mail-in ballot boxes.
A total of 890,985 voters can vote to elect 65 members of Congress. The breakdown includes 36 people from Badajoz and 29 from Caceres. More than 26,000 of them will be voting for the first time. Polling stations will be open until 8:00 p.m., with the first provisional numbers expected to be announced around 9:30 p.m.
What’s at stake in the poll results?
According to average polls, the PP is the leading party with around 41% of the vote and 26 to 30 seats. Guardiola won one-tenth of the votes and one seat during the election, but this means he will fall short of an absolute majority of 33 members.
Although the PSOE won votes in 2023, with the same number of seats as the PP, it faces declining projections. According to the latest projections, the parliamentary share will fall below 30% to 21 seats, seven fewer than in 2023. This would be the worst socialist outcome in decades in a region traditionally the territory of the PSOE.
According to estimates, Vox has strengthened its position as a third-party power and could double its representation from five to 11 to 13 seats. This makes Santiago Abascal’s party once again key to forming a government after it broke with the PP two and a half years ago.
Unidas por Extremadura is aiming to slightly improve its results, and is expected to have between six and seven MPs, compared to four in 2023.
The parliamentary arithmetic is clear. The combined PP and Vox would easily exceed the 33 seats needed for an absolute majority, but the Progressive Bloc would have great difficulty reaching that threshold even in the best-case scenario.
Crowds and events on rainy days
One of the question marks in today’s election is voter turnout. Since 1983, voter turnout in Extremadura has never fallen below 70%, with the exception of 2019, when it was close to 69%. The date change, the proximity to Christmas and the fact that voting is separate from local elections could affect turnout.
The day started with several events. At one school, several poll workers did not show up. Absenteeism was also recorded in other schools in Extremadura’s capital, but polling stations were able to be staffed by proxies.
The weather was also unseasonable. The northern part of Cáceres is on high alert as up to 40 liters of rain could fall per square meter. Temperatures range from 4°C to 11°C in Badajoz and from 4°C to 9°C in Cáceres.
The Red Cross has set up a special service with more than 50 vehicles to transport the elderly, dependents and sick people to polling stations. This service can be requested by calling 927222222.
This kicks off a long electoral calendar in Extremadura that could determine Spain’s political rhythm until 2027. This Sunday’s outcome will determine whether the PP achieves the stability it seeks, or whether an agreement will once again determine who rules the region.