The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not in any way represent the editorial position of Euronews.
For many years, Western foreign policy establishments have lived by a doctrine that has become almost sacrosanct. This doctrine is known as “linkage,” and it is the idea that every problem, every conflict, every conflict, every diplomatic impasse in the Middle East somehow revolves around Jerusalem.
For decades, diplomats, analysts, political commentators, and policymakers have argued that no progress can be made in the region unless the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is resolved. They talked about it as if it were the master key that would bring stability to hundreds of millions of people.
If only Israel and the Palestinians could reach an agreement, they said, extremism would decline, Arab states would modernize, Iran would become less aggressive, sectarian tensions would ease, and the entire region would finally find peace.
This became an elegant, almost comforting worldview, simple enough to be repeated endlessly in conference and think tank papers. Unfortunately, it was completely divorced from reality.
Linkage survived because it was convenient
The Middle East never functioned the way Western observers expected. The region did not wait for a handshake on the White House lawn to resolve a deeper political crisis.
The biggest wars in the Middle East, from the Iran-Iraq war to the collapse of Syria, had nothing to do with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Sunni-Shia divide that has given rise to many of the region’s most destructive dynamics existed long before the state of Israel was created.
The war in Yemen, the collapse of Lebanon, the rise of the so-called Islamic State, the fragility of Jordan, and many others all exist independently of what is happening between Israelis and Palestinians.
Linkage survived not because it was true, but because it was convenient. This has allowed Western governments to overly focus on one conflict, rather than confronting the complexities of the entire region.
The Abraham Accords dealt a decisive blow to this outdated theory.
When the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan normalized relations with Israel without any resolution to the conflict, the idea of collaboration collapsed under the weight of facts.
Arab states made a simple calculation: cooperation with Israel was in their national interests. They were not willing to postpone economic development, technological advances, security cooperation, and diplomatic opportunities in order to maintain Western doctrine that was in no way aligned with their priorities.
The agreement showed that the path to regional peace does not come through rigid diplomatic formulas invented decades ago, but through strategic partnerships, common interests, and a willingness to break with old assumptions.
But new, more troubling forms of connection are beginning to emerge, especially in Europe.
It’s not only wrong, it’s dangerous
As countries across the continent face mounting migration pressures and an undeniable surge in Islamic radicalization, some European leaders are beginning to link domestic issues directly to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Now, instead of claiming that peace in the Middle East depends on Israel and the Palestinians, they are now saying that the stability of Europe depends on peace in the Middle East.
They argue that unless they force the establishment of a Palestinian state, Europe will continue to face riots in the streets, radicalization in schools, intimidation in universities, and extremism in mosques.
Instead of asking how Europe allowed Islamist networks and the Muslim Brotherhood to gain influence over educational institutions, social services and religious groups, some leaders suggest that Europe’s safety and security depends on developments in Gaza and Ramallah.
This is not only wrong, but dangerous. Europe’s social rifts were not created in Jerusalem, and they will not be healed there.
The challenges Europe faces today are the result of decades of political hesitation, cultural insecurity, and a refusal to confront extremist ideology that has taken root in its own societies. The rise of the Muslim Brotherhood across Europe did not occur because of Israeli policies.
Their entry into local government, schools, and civil society organizations did not occur because of the Middle East conflict. Islamic indoctrination did not spread because of what Israel did or did not do. These trends have grown as many European governments have chosen to ignore them in the hope that they will disappear or soften over time. Instead, they stiffened. They also became more sophisticated, more ideological, and more deeply embedded.
The future of European stability does not lie in the Middle East
To claim now that Israel holds the key to correcting Europe’s domestic failings is not only intellectually dishonest but also morally irresponsible.
It shifts responsibility away from European governments that have failed to properly integrate immigrants, enforce their own laws, counter extremist preachers, and defend their own liberal values.
Worse still, Jews will once again be forced into the familiar and dangerous role of scapegoat. When European leaders imply that unrest in their cities will subside if only the Jewish state changes its behavior, they are effectively saying that Jews are responsible for the anger and violence directed against them. That’s not analysis. That is political evasion.
The first version of the link was misdirected, but not particularly malicious. The new version is far more sinister because it blames Jews for problems that have nothing to do with Jews.
It suggests that the path to European harmony lies not in modifying European policy but in pressuring Israel to establish a Palestinian terrorist state. It forgives those who have ignored integration for decades. It forgives those who have allowed extremist ideology to flourish.
It allows those who prefer symbolic actions to serious reforms, and it does all this while shifting the burden of Europe’s internal cohesion onto the shoulders of small countries thousands of kilometers away.
Europe’s problems will not be solved in Jerusalem. The problem will be solved by leaders in Paris, Brussels, Berlin and Stockholm who are willing to tell the truth about what went wrong and what must change. Israel cannot repair Europe’s social rifts, nor can it serve as Europe’s shield against extremism.
And you don’t have to.
It is time for Europe to abandon the illusion of ties, old and new, and stop using Israel as an excuse and a distraction. The future of European stability lies not in the Middle East, but in Europe’s willingness to meet its own challenges, which it has allowed to grow unchecked for too long.
Ohad Tal is a member of parliament and a member of the Parliamentary Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee.