Italy’s silence on the Mercosur trade deal has been deafening and could prove decisive. Rome could become king between supporters of the agreement and countries seeking to block it.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will fly to Brazil on December 20 to sign the agreement. France, facing anger from farmers concerned about unfair competition with Latin American countries, opposes the deal and wants to postpone an EU membership vote scheduled for this week to allow it to be signed.
The trade agreement with Mercosur countries (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) aims to create a free trade area for 700 million people across the Atlantic Ocean. Its adoption requires a qualified majority of EU member states. Minorities in the four countries, which account for 35% of the EU’s population, could prevent ratification.
Looking at the numbers, Italy’s stance is extremely important. France, Hungary, Poland and Austria oppose the deal. Ireland and the Netherlands have not taken a formal position, despite past opposition. Belgium abstains.
This put Italy in the spotlight. One diplomat told Euronews that the country feels exposed but might not be in a bad position if it uses its rights to get concessions.
Coldiretti remains adamantly opposed to the deal.
Rome’s agriculture minister had previously demanded guarantees for farmers.
Since then, the European Commission has proposed safeguards to monitor potential EU market disruption from Mercosur imports. The bill has the support of member states and is scheduled to be voted on by EU lawmakers in the plenary session of the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Tuesday.
Italy’s largest agricultural organization Coldiretti remains firmly opposed.
“If the EU market is hit by a surge in Mercosur imports, it would take too long to trigger this safeguard clause,” a Coldiretti representative told Euronews.
Meanwhile, while Italy remains the EU’s second-biggest exporter to Mercosur countries, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni faces a delicate balancing act between farmers and industry lobby group Confindustria.
This was also revealed by Agriculture Minister Francesco Lollobrigida in Brussels a few days ago. “Many industrial sectors and some agricultural sectors, such as wine and cheese producers, will see clear and tangible benefits[from the agreement]. Other sectors could also be penalized,” he said.
This is why Italy has not taken a clear stance so far. “Since 2024, we have been trying to protect all our citizens, but the country’s position remains ambiguous,” Lollobrigida argued.
Supporters of the deal are pleading with Mr. Meloni to force the deal through global trade obstacles, including nationalist policies in the United States and China, and see it as a path to opening new markets.
“As long as the European Commission president is preparing to go to Brazil to attend the Mercosur summit, we need to do what is necessary for that,” said a senior EU diplomat from one of the countries pushing for the deal.
However, uncertainty remains. No one is planning a vote that could fail and Italy’s prolonged silence is unsettling supporters, sources told Euronews.
“It’s difficult, it looks difficult,” a diplomat familiar with the matter admitted to Euronews.