Analyzes predict that Hubble’s uncontrolled reentry might happen as early because the late 2020s. Picture credit score: Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock
The Hubble Area Telescope, probably the most productive scientific observatories ever launched, is on a gradual however inevitable downward spiral towards Earth because of atmospheric drag appearing in low Earth orbit. Launched in 1990, Hubble’s orbit at an altitude of about 540 to 560 km slowly decays as its altitude decreases over time because of drag within the skinny higher environment. Failure to take corrective motion will in the end result in re-entry into Earth’s environment.
The telescope was periodically raised to excessive orbit throughout upkeep missions by Area Shuttle crews between 1993 and 2009. For the reason that retirement of the shuttle fleet, such alternatives have disappeared, leaving Hubble’s orbit unchecked. With out an energetic enhance or managed deorbit mission, the telescope will proceed to descend as atmospheric drag regularly reduces its orbital velocity.
Reentry predictions range
Mannequin predicting reentry by 2030s
Analyzes predict that Hubble’s uncontrolled reentry might happen as early because the late 2020s to mid-2030s. Photo voltaic exercise performs a key position in figuring out the speed of orbital collapse, as elevated photo voltaic radiation heats and expands the higher environment, growing drag on satellites at Hubble altitude. Though this variation creates uncertainty in estimating the precise timing of reentry, the long-term downward pattern continues to be evident.
Threat posed by uncontrolled descent
Particles and security concerns
Hubble was not designed for uncontrolled reentry. If the telescope had been to re-enter with no managed deorbit plan, most of its construction would expend upon atmospheric entry, however some bigger elements would possibly survive and attain the bottom. Specialists say it’s unlikely, however not zero, that the particles will have an effect on populated areas, as re-entry from a disintegration trajectory might scatter surviving particles over a large geographical space.
Area businesses usually plan managed deorbits of huge spacecraft to information surviving particles to uninhabited areas, similar to distant ocean areas, to reduce threat. A docking adapter put in throughout Hubble’s final upkeep mission in 2009 might facilitate future managed reentries, however no missions are deliberate to make use of it.
Potential mitigation efforts
NASA and personal sector proposals can be thought-about
In response to the collapse concern, NASA and SpaceX have been contemplating choices to increase Hubble’s operational life or allow safer end-of-life situations. One idea being mentioned includes a non-public sector mission that might rendezvous with Hubble to speed up its orbit, postpone reentry, and permit for a managed deorbit after mission completion.
Such proposals are nonetheless within the planning or analysis levels, and none have been formally adopted as of early 2026. If a reboost mission had been pursued, it might considerably delay the telescope’s descent and cut back the dangers related to uncontrolled reentry.
Essential factors
- Hubble’s orbit regularly decays because of atmospheric resistance.
- Re-entry is anticipated to happen from the late 2020s to the mid-2030s.
- A lot of the telescope will burn out, however a few of the particles might attain the bottom.
- No managed deorbit missions are deliberate.
- NASA and SpaceX’s proposal to speed up Hubble’s orbit continues to be within the planning levels.
Broader context for telescope reentry
Uncontrolled reentry shouldn’t be distinctive to Hubble
Many satellites and spacecraft in low Earth orbit finally reenter the environment uncontrolled, except they’re actively faraway from orbit. Area businesses usually goal to mitigate these dangers by design, end-of-life planning, and managed deorbit missions, however the scale and scientific worth of property like Hubble complicate planning for closing disposal methods.
Hubble continues to make beneficial scientific observations whereas engineering groups monitor its well being and plan for its eventual retirement.