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Qatar’s confirmation that some U.S. military personnel have been removed from al-Udeid Air Base as a precautionary measure reflects growing concerns across the Gulf that tensions between Washington and Iran could escalate into open conflict, according to a leading regional expert.
Mehran Kamrava, a professor at Qatar’s Georgetown University, told Euronews that the Qatari Foreign Ministry’s warning this week that an escalation would be “catastrophic” accurately assesses the risks currently facing the region.
“I think that’s a fair assessment,” Kamrava said. “Given the changing nature of geopolitical dynamics in the region, we face an extremely difficult predicament.”
Qatar stressed that the move at al-Udeid, the largest US air base in the Middle East, was precautionary and did not represent an imminent threat. But the political scientist said the base’s central role would put Qatar at particular risk if the crisis escalated.
“It’s very disconcerting, especially for those of us based in the region,” he said. “Iran has formally informed the governments of Qatar and Saudi Arabia that it will attack U.S. targets in those countries.”
Iran and a “deadlier punch”
Kamrava said the collapse of the so-called “Axis of Resistance” has narrowed Iran’s options and pushed Tehran toward more direct retaliation.
“One of the things we’ve seen is that now that the Iranian axis of resistance no longer exists, the Iranians are relying on ballistic missiles.” “They will no longer be able to engage American forces remotely; they will attack American targets directly.”
He warned that Iran’s leadership would have little political wiggle room if the United States attacked Iran.
“Politically, the Iranian government cannot afford not to react,” Kamrava said. “We cannot bear the domestic political costs of appearing unable to fight back.”
Kamrava pointed to past conflicts, including the killing of General Qasem Soleimani in 2020 and the attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in June 2025, and said retaliation has been consistent.
“There’s no reason to believe this time will be any different,” he said. “If anything, the Iranians will want to show they can throw a more lethal punch.”
protests take on a life of their own
Kamrava said the protests, which began due to economic concerns and the collapse of the rial, developed with government overreaction and encouragement from outside.
“Protesting can cost you your own life,” he said. He added that although pro-government demonstrations now appear to be larger, “anti-government sentiment and public anger are very widespread across the country.”
Kamrava said only a sober assessment of the consequences can prevent further escalation.
“We cannot just attack Iran and be done with it,” he warned. “If Iran is attacked, American targets in the region will also be attacked. That is the reality that policymakers need to face.”